The Iowa Caucuses are tomorrow, and while there is little suspense on the Democratic side, the GOP race seems to be a three way race, that is nearly a dead heat. This was confirmed by several polls released in the last 24 hours, including an Insider Advantage poll released today that was taken yesterday. Ron Paul makes the argument that his supports are under represented in the polls because they are more likely to have "cut the landline" and only have a cell phone. This may be true, but the same complaint can be made by the Santorum campaign that a poll taken on Sunday was likely to find his supporters at church.
Getting all of that out of the way, here is my prediction for the Iowa Caucus:
Rick Santorum will win the Iowa Caucus with 27% of the delegates, Ron Paul will finish second at 24% and Mitt Romney will finish a disappointing third at 22%.
According to polling Romney's support is the softest in terms of whether his supporters are set on voting for him. He also possess the weakest argument in Iowan terms for voting for Romney. Traditionally having the best chance to win the presidency doesn't win you the GOP Caucus.
Meanwhile both Santorum and Paul have very excited followers, whom are "true belivers" and more likely to stick with their candidate.
Well tomorrow should be a fun night for those of us who love politics, tell me what you think and make your predictions in the comments section.
Monday, January 2, 2012
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Primer+November 4th predictions
At the time I am writing this there is less than 72 hours left until polls begin to close. I decided I would try to take a shot at predicting how the election will fall:
* Alabama
Electoral Votes: 9
Lay of the land: Alabama is a solid red part of the traditional Republican southern coalition, with large numbers of Southern Evangelical Christians. Alabama does have a large the sixth largest African American population, but the lack of Hispanic population and the traditional born again population that is more reliable to the Republican party as any other group.
Pollster.com average: 58.7% McCain-35.5% Obama
My prediction: 61% McCain-38%Obama -Barr 1%
* Alaska
Electoral Votes:3
Lay of the land: Was in play until the pick of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, this is her home state and she enjoys high approval ratings(though not as high as when she was selected). Would have been in play only due to all the corruption in Alaska Republican Politics(one conviction and one ongoing investigation of their 3 person Congressional delegation).
Pollster.com average: 57%McCain-Obama 40.1%
My prediction: 59%McCain-40%Obama -Barr 1%
* Arizona
Electoral Votes:10
Lay of the land: This is John McCain’s home state and he has never lost an Arizona election. Demographically it is the home to a growing Hispanic population, many older retirees from the more “Liberal” states. This state looks like one that would be in play if it weren’t home to one of the presidential candidates. Recent polls show John McCain only leading by a few points, within the margin of error, and Obama is now on the air with ads.
Pollster.com average:49%McCain-43.8%Obama
My prediction: 54%McCain-46%Obama
* Arkansas
Electoral Votes:6
Lay of the land: One of the poorest rural states in the country. Has a demographic similar to Alabama, but has voted for a Democratic President twice since 1976(Both time Bill Clinton). Former President Bill Clinton has held several rallies to attempt to put the state in play.
Pollster.com average: 52%McCain- 42.3%Obama
My prediction:57%McCain-43%Obama
* California
Electoral Votes:55
Lay of the land: One of the most reliable blue states in the country. Has gone for the Democrats every election since 1988. State has a moderate Republican Governor but is a very difficult landscape for a conservative to get elected in. Never was even close to being in play this cycle, most interesting item to watch will be the Gay Marriage State Constitutional Amendment, which only requires a simple majority to pass. Polls show this as very close.
Pollster.com average:56.3%Obama-36.6%McCain
My prediction:62%Obama-35%McCain-Nader 3%
Prop 8: No 50.5% Yes 49.5%
* Colorado
Electoral Votes:9
Lay of the land: One of the more interesting states to watch this cycle. Traditional votes Republican for president, but demographics in this state are in flux. Is the youngest state by age in the country, has a large military population and the fastest growing Hispanic population in the country. Democratic registrations out rank Republicans for the first time this year. Heavy early voting where almost 70% of the amount of people that voted in 2004 already voted and according to polling have gone heavily to Obama.
Pollster.com average:51.6%Obama-44.5%McCain
My prediction:56%Obama-44%McCain
* Connecticut
Electoral Votes:7
Lay of the land: Is part of the liberal east coast block. State has a high percentage of college graduates, but a very small minority population. Not considered to be in play.
Pollster.com average:55.8%Obama-34.7%McCain
My prediction:63%Obama-McCain 35%-Nader 2%
* Delaware
Electoral Votes:3
Lay of the land: Is also part of the liberal east coast block, though not as rich as Connecticut, but demographics and voting habits are very similar.
Pollster.com average:57.3%Obama-37.9%McCain
My prediction:59%Obama-39%McCain-2%Nader
* District of Columbia
Electoral Votes:3
Lay of the land: Is not a state but is allowed 3 electoral votes. Only area with its own EV votes where African Americans are in the majority(57%) amongst all voters. Is the most reliable democratic voting area in the country, even voted for Dukakis and Mondale.
Pollster.com average:82%Obama-13%McCain
My prediction:87%Obama-13%McCain
* Florida
Electoral Votes:27
Lay of the land: In 2000 it was all about Florida, recount drama, hanging chads, etc. In 2004 in the week leading up to the election it appear we were in for a repeat, but Kerry didn’t turn out the African American voters the way that Gore did, and didn’t do as well with the older Jewish voters as Gore. All of this spelled an easier than expected victory for George Bush. This time around Barack Obama is turning out the African Americans, and polling stronger with Jews, Cubans, and the normally Republican Tampa suburbs. No poll in the last 2 weeks has McCain in the lead, but some have been in the margin of error. This is a must win for John McCain, he has no path to the White House without it.
Pollster.com average:47.7%Obama-45.1%McCain
My prediction:52%Obama-47%McCain-1%Nader
* Georgia
Electoral Votes:15
Lay of the land: Is a reliable red state with a large African American minority(30%). Is the home state of Libertarian Candidate Bob Barr. Recent polling shows this state to be a toss up, and word is spreading that John McCain has a problem with his ground game in this state due to a campaign decision to pull money from the turn out operation and put it into ads. Heavy African American turnout in early voting gives hope to the Obama campaign, which can only hope that enough Republican voters stay home to allow his turnout operation to overwhelm the state. Also has a Senate race to watch for on election night.
Pollster.com average: 48.6%McCain-46.4%Obama
My prediction: 49%McCain 47%Obama-4%Barr
* Hawaii
Electoral Votes:3
Lay of the Land: Is in a normal year a reliably blue state, but is completely out of play this year since it is the birth place of Barrack Obama.
Pollster.com average:63.8%Obama-30.2%McCain
My prediction: 65%Obama-35%McCain
* Idaho
Electoral Votes:4
Lay of the land: Is one of the most Republican states in the country, is part of the old Republican west. Not much in the way of a minority population or a union population. State is not in play.
Pollster.com average:61.6%McCain-29%Obama
My prediction: 67%McCain-31%Obama-2%Barr
* Illinois
Electoral Votes:21
Lay of the land: Home State of Barrack Obama and has been reliably blue since 1988. No statewide office holder is a Republican.
Pollster.com average:58.7%Obama-33.6%McCain
My prediction:62%Obama-38%McCain
* Indiana
Electoral Votes:11
Lay of the land: Is the Great Lakes area’s most conservative state. Borders Illinois and has a large African American population in the Indiana/Chicago suburbs. Should be a safe McCain State but is polling very close. Obama has many volunteers crossing state lines to help get the vote out.
Pollster.com average:47.3%McCain-46.8%Obama
My prediction:52%McCain-48%Obama
* Iowa
Electoral votes:7
Lay of the land: Is a difficult state for John McCain due to opposing the farm bill and ethanol subsides. State barely went for Gore in 2000 and Bush in 2004. Public polling shows this state is not even close, but McCain’s campaign says their internal polling shows otherwise. Heavy early voting favors democrats almost 2 to 1.
Pollster.com average:53.4%Obama-40.9%McCain
My prediction:53%Obama-47%McCain
* Kansas
Electoral Votes:6
Lay of the land: Is part of the red block of midwestern states. Very few minorities, and a large evangelical population make this a safe McCain State.
Pollster.com average:56.2%McCain-38.8%Obama
My prediction: 60%McCain-40%Obama
* Kentucky
Electoral Votes:8
Lay of the land: In a state where democratic registration outnumbers republicans you would expect that this state would be in play. This state is a mostly a working class white state with a large union population. This state is not competitive this year. Has a very interesting Senate race where Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell is in a toss up race.
Pollster.com average:54.1%McCain-41.1%Obama
My prediction:57%McCain-43%Obama
* Louisiana
Electoral Votes:9
Lay of the land: Is an other reliably conservative republican state that traditional votes republican. Also has a large African American population(32%) so that has been shrinking ever since Hurricane Katrina. Latest polls show this state may be in play, but only in the most optimistic of landslide scenarios.
Pollster.com average:50.9%McCain-40.1%Obama
My prediction:54%McCain-46%Obama
* Maine
Electoral Votes:4
Lay of the land: Maine is a solid blue liberal northeastern coastal block state. Though it takes a hybrid approach to assigning its Electoral votes, assigning 2 to however wins the popular vote in the state and awarding one each to the candidate that wins each Congressional district. McCain has campaign a few times in Maine’s 1st district but is polling well behind.
Pollster.com average:54.5%Obama-35.6%McCain
My prediction:60%Obama-37%McCain-2%Barr-1%Nader
* Maryland
Electoral Votes:10
Lay of the land: Maryland is another east coast heavily liberal leaning state. It has a large African American population near the D.C. and Baltimore areas.
Pollster.com average:55.5%Obama-37.5%McCain
My prediction:59%Obama-39McCain-2%Barr
* Massachusetts
Electoral Votes:12
Lay of the land: Though the democrats aren’t nominating a Massachusetts liberal this time, it remains as a safe member of the east coast blue coalition.
Pollster.com average:57.1%Obama-36.6%McCain
My prediction:60%Obama-40%McCain
* Michigan
Electoral Votes:17
Lay of the land: Went by small margins in both 2000 and 2004 to the democrats. Michigan was considered to be a true toss up state that the McCain campaign thought they could win due to the Democratic party’s decision to disqualify the Michigan primary for taking place to early. The financial collapse ended that plan and McCain has pulled his staff out of the state to concentrate elsewhere.
Pollster.com average:54.2%Obama-38.1%McCain
My prediction:56%Obama-44%McCain
* Minnesota
Electoral Votes:10
Lay of the land: Went easily to John Kerry in 2004 but was polling close leading up to the conventions. The Republicans believed that this was a state they could pick up and the polls agreed especially after the Republican convention in St. Paul where some showed a lead for McCain in the State. The lead was short lived though, again because of the financial crisis. Looks as if it will be an easy victory for Obama, but has a very interesting Senate race involving comedian Al Franken.
Pollster.com average:53.3%Obama-40.1%McCain
My prediction:55%Obama-43%McCain-2%Barr
* Mississippi
Electoral Vote:6
Lay of the land: Another one of the Republican southern voting bloc. Has a large African American population that is still easily offset by an even larger block of born again Christians.
Pollster.com average:50.9%McCain-41.3%Obama
My prediction:55%McCain-44%Obama-1%Barr
* Missouri
Electoral Votes:11
Lay of the land: Missouri is considered one of the bell weather states, having voted for the winning candidate in every election since 1964. Is democratic in both St. Louis and Kansas City areas and republican through out the rest of the state. Is a state that is truly decided by who gets their voters to the polls.
Pollster.com average:48.4%Obama-46.6%McCain
My prediction:50.1%Obama-49.9McCain
* Montana
Electoral Votes:3
Lay of the land: Has been a traditional republican old west state, but has recently elected Democrats to major statewide offices. Was looking to be in play until the appointment of Sarah Palin, but Obama has recovered since the financial crash. Ron Paul is on the ballot for the Constitution party and has been polling in the mid-single digits.
Pollster.com average:48.4%McCain-45.1%Obama
My prediction:47.6%McCain-46.4%Obama-5%Paul-1%Barr
* Nebraska
Electoral Votes:5
Lay of the land: A traditional republican west/midwestern coalition state. Uses the same hybrid approach to electoral vote allocation as Maine, assigns the 2 electoral votes to the overall winner of the state and then assigns one EV per congressional district. Obama has been on the air in the congressional district that encompasses Omaha but doesn’t appear in striking distance of stealing an electoral vote.
Pollster.com average:58.1%McCain-35.8%Obama
My prediction:62%McCain-38%Obama
* Nevada
Electoral Votes:5
Lay of the land: In 2004 was a considered a true toss up state, which Bush won by doing well with Hispanics. In 2008 is polling a slight lead for Obama due to a strong standing with Hispanics. Has one of the fastest growing populations amongst the 50 states.
Pollster.com average:50%Obama-44%McCain
My prediction:52%Obama-47%McCain-1%Nader
* New Hampshire
Electoral Votes:4
Lay of the land: In 2000 was only northeastern state not to vote for Al Gore, but went for John Kerry in 2004. Has been very good to John McCain, winning both primaries he has competed in(2000-2008) though he wasn’t leading in the polls either time. Also was polling a 2% Obama advantage in the primary and voted for Hilary by 2%(a 4 % swing). Large portion of the population are registered independents and has been hurt by the economy more than any northeastern state.
Pollster.com average:52.5%Obama-41.2%McCain
My prediction:51.5%Obama-48.5%McCain
* New Jersey
Electoral Votes:15
Lay of the land: Part of the Northeastern Blue coalition and has voted democrat since 1988.
Pollster.com average:53.6%Obama-38.4%McCain
My prediction:55%Obama-45%McCain
* New Mexico
Electoral Votes:5
Lay of the land: In 2000 went for Al Gore by a couple hundred votes and in 2004 was nearly won by Bush. Has a large Hispanic population that is polling heavily toward Obama. Heavy early voting is showing a 17 point lead for Obama with 60% of the electorate already having voted.
Pollster.com average:52.3%Obama-43.7%McCain
My prediction:55%Obama-45%McCain
* New York
Electoral Votes:31
Lay of the land: Is a reliably liberal state that fits in with its geography in the Northeast. Only elects republicans statewide that are moderates and pro-abortion and features the countries largest city New York City but has been recently cited by Sarah Palin as the un-American part of America.
Pollster.com average:60.5%Obama-34.5%McCain
My prediction:60%Obama-40%McCain
* North Carolina
Electoral Votes:15
Lay of the land: Is a traditional republican south state, and also has a large African American population. John Kerry in 2004 tried to put this state in play by selecting John Edwards, this strategy failed. Is considered this cycle to be a true toss up state. Is a state that allowed same time registration and early voting and the last number I was showed over 200,000 voters registered and voting under this process. More than 70% of the 2004 turn out numbers went out and early voted with 54.3% identifying themselves as democrats. This is a state that had more registered democrats than republicans in 2004 so it is difficult to say how many actually voted that way. Also has a straight ticket law that doesn’t include voting for president that must be done separately.
Pollster.com average:48.2%Obama-46.9%McCain
My prediction: 51.7%Obama-48.3%McCain
* North Dakota
Electoral Votes:3
Lay of the land: Another one of the traditional west/midwest republican states. Was not expected to be in play this cycle but with almost no time or ads being run has been polling recently as a toss up state.
Pollster.com average:46%Obama-42.9%McCain
My prediction:51%McCain-49%Obama
* Ohio
Electoral Votes:20
Lay of the land: In 2004 Ohio was the “Florida” of this election with George Bush winning by turnout more of his voters in the southwestern part of the state. Obama is polling stronger in this region than John Kerry did. This is another must have McCain state to win the White House. No republican has every won the white house without Ohio.
Pollster.com average:49.8%Obama-43.5%McCain
My prediction:52%Obama-47%McCain-1%Nader
* Oklahoma
Electoral Votes:7
Lay of the land: Is as strong a republican state as any in the country. Home to one of the largest born again Christian population when looked at by overall state population.
Pollster.com average:62%McCain-34.5%Obama
My prediction:65%McCain-35%Obama
* Oregon
Electoral Votes:7
Lay of the land: Is a part of the west coast liberal democratic coalition. Environmental issues play big in Oregon. John McCain had some early hopes here and visited several times. Has a very competitive Senate Race.
Pollster.com average:54.6%Obama-38.9%McCain
My prediction:55%Obama-43%McCain-2%Nader
* Pennsylvania
Electoral Votes:21
Lay of the land: Often mentioned as similar to New York in the east and in the west and like Alabama in between. This is a state that every republican presidential candidate thinks they can win, but never do. Is the key to John McCain’s road to the white house to offset loses of other Bush States. Will be decided by turnout, Obama expects to run up a 7 digit margin in the Philly area.
Pollster.com average:51.5%Obama-44.2%McCain
My prediction:52%Obama-48%McCain
* Rhode Island
Electoral Votes:4
Lay of the land: Is another member of the liberal Atlantic region that votes consistently for the democrats.
Pollster.com average:48.2%Obama-30.9%McCain
My prediction:58%Obama-42%McCain
* South Carolina
Electoral Votes:8
Lay of the land: A usually part of the republican southern strategy. Has a large African American population, a very large veteran, active military and evangelical Christian populations.
Pollster.com average:52.9%McCain-43.3%Obama
My prediction:55%McCain-45%Obama
* South Dakota
Electoral Votes:3
Lay of the land: Part of the west/Midwestern republican bloc, is very similar to North Dakota only considerable more conservative.
Pollster.com average:50.4%McCain-42.9%Obama
My prediction:55%McCain-45%Obama
* Tennessee
Electoral Votes:11
Lay of the land: A deep south red state that is trending more republican over the last few years.
Pollster.com average:54.4%McCain-39.4%Obama
My prediction:58%McCain-42%Obama
* Texas
Electoral Votes:34
Lay of the land: Texas used to be a very important state to the Democratic Party but now is a safe republican state. Large Hispanic, African American and Born again Christian populations give this state an interesting dynamic.
Pollster.com average:54.3%McCain-40.8%Obama
My prediction:56%McCain-44%Obama
* Utah
Electoral Votes:5
Lay of the land: Large Mormon population in the state of Utah makes this the safest of safe western states for the republicans.
Pollster.com average:56.5%McCain-32.5%Obama
My prediction:63%McCain-37%Obama
* Vermont
Electoral Votes:3
Lay of the land: A safe democratic stronghold with the rest of the Northeastern region.
Pollster.com average:56%Obama-34.7%McCain
My prediction:60%Obama-38%McCain-2%Nader
* Virginia
Electoral Votes:13
Lay of the land: Has voted overwhelmingly toward republican presidential candidates in the past, but the Northern Virginia area is the fastest growing area of the state. This election could be all about Virginia, if Virginia goes democrat then John McCain must have Pennsylvania. Large military and African American populations make this state fertile ground to both sides. The democrats registered more than 500,000 new voters in the northern Virginia area. Polls close early at 7PM EST, should give an early view on the direction the election is headed.
Pollster.com average:50.6%Obama-44.3%McCain
My prediction:52%Obama-48%McCain
* Washington
Electoral Votes:11
Lay of the land: Along with Oregon and California these states represent the blue pacific coast states. The environment is a key issue in Washington.
Pollster.com average:53.7%Obama-40.8%McCain
My prediction:56%Obama-44%McCain
* West Virginia
Electoral Votes:5
Lay of the land: A state Al Gore took for granted in 2000 and didn’t visit feeling it was safe for the democrats. It voted for Bush and cost him the White House and went for Bush again in 2004. During the primary’s 1/3rd of all democratic voters said they couldn’t vote for a black candidate for president according to the exit polls. The state showed some closing in a couple weeks leading up to the election but appears to be safe republican.
Pollster.com average:53.6%McCain-41.7%Obama
My prediction: 56%McCain-44%Obama
* Wisconsin
Electoral Votes:10
Lay of the land: Was a close victory for John Kerry in 2004 and Al Gore in 2000 but seems to reliable go democrat by a small margin. Was the first place John McCain and Sarah Palin visited after their convention. Polls moved heavily in Obama’s favor after financial crisis.
Pollster.com average:52.2%Obama-41.3%McCain
My prediction:54%Obama-46%McCain
* Wyoming
Electoral Votes:3
Lay of the land: Home state to VP Dick Cheney, is as republican as any western state this side of Utah.
Pollster.com average: 60.1%McCain-35.8%Obama
My prediction:64%McCain-36%Obama
Overall: 364 Obama-174 McCain
Popular vote: 54%Obama-45%Mccain
* Alabama
Electoral Votes: 9
Lay of the land: Alabama is a solid red part of the traditional Republican southern coalition, with large numbers of Southern Evangelical Christians. Alabama does have a large the sixth largest African American population, but the lack of Hispanic population and the traditional born again population that is more reliable to the Republican party as any other group.
Pollster.com average: 58.7% McCain-35.5% Obama
My prediction: 61% McCain-38%Obama -Barr 1%
* Alaska
Electoral Votes:3
Lay of the land: Was in play until the pick of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, this is her home state and she enjoys high approval ratings(though not as high as when she was selected). Would have been in play only due to all the corruption in Alaska Republican Politics(one conviction and one ongoing investigation of their 3 person Congressional delegation).
Pollster.com average: 57%McCain-Obama 40.1%
My prediction: 59%McCain-40%Obama -Barr 1%
* Arizona
Electoral Votes:10
Lay of the land: This is John McCain’s home state and he has never lost an Arizona election. Demographically it is the home to a growing Hispanic population, many older retirees from the more “Liberal” states. This state looks like one that would be in play if it weren’t home to one of the presidential candidates. Recent polls show John McCain only leading by a few points, within the margin of error, and Obama is now on the air with ads.
Pollster.com average:49%McCain-43.8%Obama
My prediction: 54%McCain-46%Obama
* Arkansas
Electoral Votes:6
Lay of the land: One of the poorest rural states in the country. Has a demographic similar to Alabama, but has voted for a Democratic President twice since 1976(Both time Bill Clinton). Former President Bill Clinton has held several rallies to attempt to put the state in play.
Pollster.com average: 52%McCain- 42.3%Obama
My prediction:57%McCain-43%Obama
* California
Electoral Votes:55
Lay of the land: One of the most reliable blue states in the country. Has gone for the Democrats every election since 1988. State has a moderate Republican Governor but is a very difficult landscape for a conservative to get elected in. Never was even close to being in play this cycle, most interesting item to watch will be the Gay Marriage State Constitutional Amendment, which only requires a simple majority to pass. Polls show this as very close.
Pollster.com average:56.3%Obama-36.6%McCain
My prediction:62%Obama-35%McCain-Nader 3%
Prop 8: No 50.5% Yes 49.5%
* Colorado
Electoral Votes:9
Lay of the land: One of the more interesting states to watch this cycle. Traditional votes Republican for president, but demographics in this state are in flux. Is the youngest state by age in the country, has a large military population and the fastest growing Hispanic population in the country. Democratic registrations out rank Republicans for the first time this year. Heavy early voting where almost 70% of the amount of people that voted in 2004 already voted and according to polling have gone heavily to Obama.
Pollster.com average:51.6%Obama-44.5%McCain
My prediction:56%Obama-44%McCain
* Connecticut
Electoral Votes:7
Lay of the land: Is part of the liberal east coast block. State has a high percentage of college graduates, but a very small minority population. Not considered to be in play.
Pollster.com average:55.8%Obama-34.7%McCain
My prediction:63%Obama-McCain 35%-Nader 2%
* Delaware
Electoral Votes:3
Lay of the land: Is also part of the liberal east coast block, though not as rich as Connecticut, but demographics and voting habits are very similar.
Pollster.com average:57.3%Obama-37.9%McCain
My prediction:59%Obama-39%McCain-2%Nader
* District of Columbia
Electoral Votes:3
Lay of the land: Is not a state but is allowed 3 electoral votes. Only area with its own EV votes where African Americans are in the majority(57%) amongst all voters. Is the most reliable democratic voting area in the country, even voted for Dukakis and Mondale.
Pollster.com average:82%Obama-13%McCain
My prediction:87%Obama-13%McCain
* Florida
Electoral Votes:27
Lay of the land: In 2000 it was all about Florida, recount drama, hanging chads, etc. In 2004 in the week leading up to the election it appear we were in for a repeat, but Kerry didn’t turn out the African American voters the way that Gore did, and didn’t do as well with the older Jewish voters as Gore. All of this spelled an easier than expected victory for George Bush. This time around Barack Obama is turning out the African Americans, and polling stronger with Jews, Cubans, and the normally Republican Tampa suburbs. No poll in the last 2 weeks has McCain in the lead, but some have been in the margin of error. This is a must win for John McCain, he has no path to the White House without it.
Pollster.com average:47.7%Obama-45.1%McCain
My prediction:52%Obama-47%McCain-1%Nader
* Georgia
Electoral Votes:15
Lay of the land: Is a reliable red state with a large African American minority(30%). Is the home state of Libertarian Candidate Bob Barr. Recent polling shows this state to be a toss up, and word is spreading that John McCain has a problem with his ground game in this state due to a campaign decision to pull money from the turn out operation and put it into ads. Heavy African American turnout in early voting gives hope to the Obama campaign, which can only hope that enough Republican voters stay home to allow his turnout operation to overwhelm the state. Also has a Senate race to watch for on election night.
Pollster.com average: 48.6%McCain-46.4%Obama
My prediction: 49%McCain 47%Obama-4%Barr
* Hawaii
Electoral Votes:3
Lay of the Land: Is in a normal year a reliably blue state, but is completely out of play this year since it is the birth place of Barrack Obama.
Pollster.com average:63.8%Obama-30.2%McCain
My prediction: 65%Obama-35%McCain
* Idaho
Electoral Votes:4
Lay of the land: Is one of the most Republican states in the country, is part of the old Republican west. Not much in the way of a minority population or a union population. State is not in play.
Pollster.com average:61.6%McCain-29%Obama
My prediction: 67%McCain-31%Obama-2%Barr
* Illinois
Electoral Votes:21
Lay of the land: Home State of Barrack Obama and has been reliably blue since 1988. No statewide office holder is a Republican.
Pollster.com average:58.7%Obama-33.6%McCain
My prediction:62%Obama-38%McCain
* Indiana
Electoral Votes:11
Lay of the land: Is the Great Lakes area’s most conservative state. Borders Illinois and has a large African American population in the Indiana/Chicago suburbs. Should be a safe McCain State but is polling very close. Obama has many volunteers crossing state lines to help get the vote out.
Pollster.com average:47.3%McCain-46.8%Obama
My prediction:52%McCain-48%Obama
* Iowa
Electoral votes:7
Lay of the land: Is a difficult state for John McCain due to opposing the farm bill and ethanol subsides. State barely went for Gore in 2000 and Bush in 2004. Public polling shows this state is not even close, but McCain’s campaign says their internal polling shows otherwise. Heavy early voting favors democrats almost 2 to 1.
Pollster.com average:53.4%Obama-40.9%McCain
My prediction:53%Obama-47%McCain
* Kansas
Electoral Votes:6
Lay of the land: Is part of the red block of midwestern states. Very few minorities, and a large evangelical population make this a safe McCain State.
Pollster.com average:56.2%McCain-38.8%Obama
My prediction: 60%McCain-40%Obama
* Kentucky
Electoral Votes:8
Lay of the land: In a state where democratic registration outnumbers republicans you would expect that this state would be in play. This state is a mostly a working class white state with a large union population. This state is not competitive this year. Has a very interesting Senate race where Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell is in a toss up race.
Pollster.com average:54.1%McCain-41.1%Obama
My prediction:57%McCain-43%Obama
* Louisiana
Electoral Votes:9
Lay of the land: Is an other reliably conservative republican state that traditional votes republican. Also has a large African American population(32%) so that has been shrinking ever since Hurricane Katrina. Latest polls show this state may be in play, but only in the most optimistic of landslide scenarios.
Pollster.com average:50.9%McCain-40.1%Obama
My prediction:54%McCain-46%Obama
* Maine
Electoral Votes:4
Lay of the land: Maine is a solid blue liberal northeastern coastal block state. Though it takes a hybrid approach to assigning its Electoral votes, assigning 2 to however wins the popular vote in the state and awarding one each to the candidate that wins each Congressional district. McCain has campaign a few times in Maine’s 1st district but is polling well behind.
Pollster.com average:54.5%Obama-35.6%McCain
My prediction:60%Obama-37%McCain-2%Barr-1%Nader
* Maryland
Electoral Votes:10
Lay of the land: Maryland is another east coast heavily liberal leaning state. It has a large African American population near the D.C. and Baltimore areas.
Pollster.com average:55.5%Obama-37.5%McCain
My prediction:59%Obama-39McCain-2%Barr
* Massachusetts
Electoral Votes:12
Lay of the land: Though the democrats aren’t nominating a Massachusetts liberal this time, it remains as a safe member of the east coast blue coalition.
Pollster.com average:57.1%Obama-36.6%McCain
My prediction:60%Obama-40%McCain
* Michigan
Electoral Votes:17
Lay of the land: Went by small margins in both 2000 and 2004 to the democrats. Michigan was considered to be a true toss up state that the McCain campaign thought they could win due to the Democratic party’s decision to disqualify the Michigan primary for taking place to early. The financial collapse ended that plan and McCain has pulled his staff out of the state to concentrate elsewhere.
Pollster.com average:54.2%Obama-38.1%McCain
My prediction:56%Obama-44%McCain
* Minnesota
Electoral Votes:10
Lay of the land: Went easily to John Kerry in 2004 but was polling close leading up to the conventions. The Republicans believed that this was a state they could pick up and the polls agreed especially after the Republican convention in St. Paul where some showed a lead for McCain in the State. The lead was short lived though, again because of the financial crisis. Looks as if it will be an easy victory for Obama, but has a very interesting Senate race involving comedian Al Franken.
Pollster.com average:53.3%Obama-40.1%McCain
My prediction:55%Obama-43%McCain-2%Barr
* Mississippi
Electoral Vote:6
Lay of the land: Another one of the Republican southern voting bloc. Has a large African American population that is still easily offset by an even larger block of born again Christians.
Pollster.com average:50.9%McCain-41.3%Obama
My prediction:55%McCain-44%Obama-1%Barr
* Missouri
Electoral Votes:11
Lay of the land: Missouri is considered one of the bell weather states, having voted for the winning candidate in every election since 1964. Is democratic in both St. Louis and Kansas City areas and republican through out the rest of the state. Is a state that is truly decided by who gets their voters to the polls.
Pollster.com average:48.4%Obama-46.6%McCain
My prediction:50.1%Obama-49.9McCain
* Montana
Electoral Votes:3
Lay of the land: Has been a traditional republican old west state, but has recently elected Democrats to major statewide offices. Was looking to be in play until the appointment of Sarah Palin, but Obama has recovered since the financial crash. Ron Paul is on the ballot for the Constitution party and has been polling in the mid-single digits.
Pollster.com average:48.4%McCain-45.1%Obama
My prediction:47.6%McCain-46.4%Obama-5%Paul-1%Barr
* Nebraska
Electoral Votes:5
Lay of the land: A traditional republican west/midwestern coalition state. Uses the same hybrid approach to electoral vote allocation as Maine, assigns the 2 electoral votes to the overall winner of the state and then assigns one EV per congressional district. Obama has been on the air in the congressional district that encompasses Omaha but doesn’t appear in striking distance of stealing an electoral vote.
Pollster.com average:58.1%McCain-35.8%Obama
My prediction:62%McCain-38%Obama
* Nevada
Electoral Votes:5
Lay of the land: In 2004 was a considered a true toss up state, which Bush won by doing well with Hispanics. In 2008 is polling a slight lead for Obama due to a strong standing with Hispanics. Has one of the fastest growing populations amongst the 50 states.
Pollster.com average:50%Obama-44%McCain
My prediction:52%Obama-47%McCain-1%Nader
* New Hampshire
Electoral Votes:4
Lay of the land: In 2000 was only northeastern state not to vote for Al Gore, but went for John Kerry in 2004. Has been very good to John McCain, winning both primaries he has competed in(2000-2008) though he wasn’t leading in the polls either time. Also was polling a 2% Obama advantage in the primary and voted for Hilary by 2%(a 4 % swing). Large portion of the population are registered independents and has been hurt by the economy more than any northeastern state.
Pollster.com average:52.5%Obama-41.2%McCain
My prediction:51.5%Obama-48.5%McCain
* New Jersey
Electoral Votes:15
Lay of the land: Part of the Northeastern Blue coalition and has voted democrat since 1988.
Pollster.com average:53.6%Obama-38.4%McCain
My prediction:55%Obama-45%McCain
* New Mexico
Electoral Votes:5
Lay of the land: In 2000 went for Al Gore by a couple hundred votes and in 2004 was nearly won by Bush. Has a large Hispanic population that is polling heavily toward Obama. Heavy early voting is showing a 17 point lead for Obama with 60% of the electorate already having voted.
Pollster.com average:52.3%Obama-43.7%McCain
My prediction:55%Obama-45%McCain
* New York
Electoral Votes:31
Lay of the land: Is a reliably liberal state that fits in with its geography in the Northeast. Only elects republicans statewide that are moderates and pro-abortion and features the countries largest city New York City but has been recently cited by Sarah Palin as the un-American part of America.
Pollster.com average:60.5%Obama-34.5%McCain
My prediction:60%Obama-40%McCain
* North Carolina
Electoral Votes:15
Lay of the land: Is a traditional republican south state, and also has a large African American population. John Kerry in 2004 tried to put this state in play by selecting John Edwards, this strategy failed. Is considered this cycle to be a true toss up state. Is a state that allowed same time registration and early voting and the last number I was showed over 200,000 voters registered and voting under this process. More than 70% of the 2004 turn out numbers went out and early voted with 54.3% identifying themselves as democrats. This is a state that had more registered democrats than republicans in 2004 so it is difficult to say how many actually voted that way. Also has a straight ticket law that doesn’t include voting for president that must be done separately.
Pollster.com average:48.2%Obama-46.9%McCain
My prediction: 51.7%Obama-48.3%McCain
* North Dakota
Electoral Votes:3
Lay of the land: Another one of the traditional west/midwest republican states. Was not expected to be in play this cycle but with almost no time or ads being run has been polling recently as a toss up state.
Pollster.com average:46%Obama-42.9%McCain
My prediction:51%McCain-49%Obama
* Ohio
Electoral Votes:20
Lay of the land: In 2004 Ohio was the “Florida” of this election with George Bush winning by turnout more of his voters in the southwestern part of the state. Obama is polling stronger in this region than John Kerry did. This is another must have McCain state to win the White House. No republican has every won the white house without Ohio.
Pollster.com average:49.8%Obama-43.5%McCain
My prediction:52%Obama-47%McCain-1%Nader
* Oklahoma
Electoral Votes:7
Lay of the land: Is as strong a republican state as any in the country. Home to one of the largest born again Christian population when looked at by overall state population.
Pollster.com average:62%McCain-34.5%Obama
My prediction:65%McCain-35%Obama
* Oregon
Electoral Votes:7
Lay of the land: Is a part of the west coast liberal democratic coalition. Environmental issues play big in Oregon. John McCain had some early hopes here and visited several times. Has a very competitive Senate Race.
Pollster.com average:54.6%Obama-38.9%McCain
My prediction:55%Obama-43%McCain-2%Nader
* Pennsylvania
Electoral Votes:21
Lay of the land: Often mentioned as similar to New York in the east and in the west and like Alabama in between. This is a state that every republican presidential candidate thinks they can win, but never do. Is the key to John McCain’s road to the white house to offset loses of other Bush States. Will be decided by turnout, Obama expects to run up a 7 digit margin in the Philly area.
Pollster.com average:51.5%Obama-44.2%McCain
My prediction:52%Obama-48%McCain
* Rhode Island
Electoral Votes:4
Lay of the land: Is another member of the liberal Atlantic region that votes consistently for the democrats.
Pollster.com average:48.2%Obama-30.9%McCain
My prediction:58%Obama-42%McCain
* South Carolina
Electoral Votes:8
Lay of the land: A usually part of the republican southern strategy. Has a large African American population, a very large veteran, active military and evangelical Christian populations.
Pollster.com average:52.9%McCain-43.3%Obama
My prediction:55%McCain-45%Obama
* South Dakota
Electoral Votes:3
Lay of the land: Part of the west/Midwestern republican bloc, is very similar to North Dakota only considerable more conservative.
Pollster.com average:50.4%McCain-42.9%Obama
My prediction:55%McCain-45%Obama
* Tennessee
Electoral Votes:11
Lay of the land: A deep south red state that is trending more republican over the last few years.
Pollster.com average:54.4%McCain-39.4%Obama
My prediction:58%McCain-42%Obama
* Texas
Electoral Votes:34
Lay of the land: Texas used to be a very important state to the Democratic Party but now is a safe republican state. Large Hispanic, African American and Born again Christian populations give this state an interesting dynamic.
Pollster.com average:54.3%McCain-40.8%Obama
My prediction:56%McCain-44%Obama
* Utah
Electoral Votes:5
Lay of the land: Large Mormon population in the state of Utah makes this the safest of safe western states for the republicans.
Pollster.com average:56.5%McCain-32.5%Obama
My prediction:63%McCain-37%Obama
* Vermont
Electoral Votes:3
Lay of the land: A safe democratic stronghold with the rest of the Northeastern region.
Pollster.com average:56%Obama-34.7%McCain
My prediction:60%Obama-38%McCain-2%Nader
* Virginia
Electoral Votes:13
Lay of the land: Has voted overwhelmingly toward republican presidential candidates in the past, but the Northern Virginia area is the fastest growing area of the state. This election could be all about Virginia, if Virginia goes democrat then John McCain must have Pennsylvania. Large military and African American populations make this state fertile ground to both sides. The democrats registered more than 500,000 new voters in the northern Virginia area. Polls close early at 7PM EST, should give an early view on the direction the election is headed.
Pollster.com average:50.6%Obama-44.3%McCain
My prediction:52%Obama-48%McCain
* Washington
Electoral Votes:11
Lay of the land: Along with Oregon and California these states represent the blue pacific coast states. The environment is a key issue in Washington.
Pollster.com average:53.7%Obama-40.8%McCain
My prediction:56%Obama-44%McCain
* West Virginia
Electoral Votes:5
Lay of the land: A state Al Gore took for granted in 2000 and didn’t visit feeling it was safe for the democrats. It voted for Bush and cost him the White House and went for Bush again in 2004. During the primary’s 1/3rd of all democratic voters said they couldn’t vote for a black candidate for president according to the exit polls. The state showed some closing in a couple weeks leading up to the election but appears to be safe republican.
Pollster.com average:53.6%McCain-41.7%Obama
My prediction: 56%McCain-44%Obama
* Wisconsin
Electoral Votes:10
Lay of the land: Was a close victory for John Kerry in 2004 and Al Gore in 2000 but seems to reliable go democrat by a small margin. Was the first place John McCain and Sarah Palin visited after their convention. Polls moved heavily in Obama’s favor after financial crisis.
Pollster.com average:52.2%Obama-41.3%McCain
My prediction:54%Obama-46%McCain
* Wyoming
Electoral Votes:3
Lay of the land: Home state to VP Dick Cheney, is as republican as any western state this side of Utah.
Pollster.com average: 60.1%McCain-35.8%Obama
My prediction:64%McCain-36%Obama
Overall: 364 Obama-174 McCain
Popular vote: 54%Obama-45%Mccain
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Obamaonmics and Tax Policy
If you increase taxes on the rich, but the economy grows because the middle class are more likely to spend the money than save it, the rich will still make more money then they are today, this will lead to increases in jobs created, taxes collected and a shrinking of our national debt, just as it did in the Clinton years. Once we pay off the debt we can lower taxes for everyone without having inflation eat up those increases(as they did with the Bush Tax cuts). The single biggest line item in the US Budget is not entitlement programs or defense, it is the interest on the national debt. Trickle down economics is a fallacy, as is supply side economics. Both theories underestimate the greed and overestimates the giving nature of people.
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